Beware Of The Muppets In The Oil Market

The following chart shows the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot price in US$ (source: US Energy Information Administration).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) from June 2002 to April 2012

Obviously, there was a speculative bubble from early 2007 to mid 2008 which then collapsed during the second half of 2008. In a series of articles, Chris Cook claims that the crude oil price has been in another bubble since the end of 2009 and that this bubble is just beginning to pop. The present article is an attempt at understanding the mechanics underlying Chris Cook’s ideas.

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Before the Thoughts! and Before the Trail

Jeff at FOFOA’s blog has discovered a partial copy of the old Kitco mailing list. The following is a compilation of what I hope are the relevant messages by The Writer, Big Trader, GFD and SimpleMan (as far as they relate to contact with Big Trader), and ANOTHER.