Before the Thoughts! and Before the Trail

Jeff at FOFOA’s blog has discovered a partial copy of the old Kitco mailing list. The following is a compilation of what I hope are the relevant messages by The Writer, Big Trader, GFD and SimpleMan (as far as they relate to contact with Big Trader), and ANOTHER.

If you do not know what I am talking about, please read Red Barron, Another (Thoughts!) and the Gold Trail.

The mailing list archive covers the period between June 1997 and January 1999 (with most of July 1997 missing, apparently due to some oversight). On 4 June 1997, the writer Notnick posted his collection of some older messages by Big Trader, GFD and The Writer going back to December 1996. I include these messages in the following and highlight them as [via Notnick].

Judging from the archived messages, there have been many hoax messages under the alias Big Trader as well, and GFD was often in direct email contact with Big Trader in order to confirm which ones were authentic. A candidate for a hoax is the message of “Fri Jun 13 1997 00:19″ which I nevertheless include.

The selection of messages in mine. If you would like further messages included, please feel free to comment. If you possess a copy of further historic messages from the Kitco forum, please don’t be too shy to come forward.

Here is the material, for now without comment. Editing for formatting yes, but no editing of the text.

Date: Sat Dec 7 11:50 [1996, via Notnick]
Big Trader ( again@no lower! ):

TO ALL:

I want to thank my friend who post here on Kitco for leting me use his mail. He wanted meto add something to the group because I am, just that, a big trader ( name is not my idea ) . Hope to add a something each saturday. Last Tue. Dec/3 I made a “no@lower” post.

Myself and a group are indeed placing open orders for Feb/97 gold on any breaks below $370.00 and will continue to buy each day under that price ( for weeks if allowed ). We can and will call most or all of these contracts if the market doesn’t rise enough for a rollover. Our cost and fees is such that it’s easier to buy paper here than physicals in asia because of the markup and comex is the only area I would trade here .The only problem for the comex will be geting the shorts to deliver enough warehouse approved deposit receipts.Correct me if I’m wrong but they only have a few hundred thousand ozs for ready delivery. I will keep you posted. A note to the Old Man, you may find it hard to “roll off a log”. Thank you all and Kitco for this area. ( end of quoted post )

Date: Thu Feb 27 1997 23:10 [via Notnick]
Big Trader ( the writer! ):

Let me clear up a few things. I am not the “Big Trader”! He cannot speak or write english and does not/would not post here. He has a need to get “thoughts” to other people. I do not do well with english either. My relations with him are private and restrict me from posting my own thoughts. If I seem to reply to someones post it is to clarify further for other eyes. As we are guests here I should pay my way so let me toss out a fact that is stranger than fiction. Do some research first. Search your books and papers, ask your advisers and letter writers, look at all of the charts. Those of you who are rich and “on the inside” of gold companies and gold traders, ask if anyone alive had ever seen gold trade in the present volumes that have not been seen in history. The shocking truth is that more gold has just been traded than is held in most of the central banks. So much so that even the 100+ year old london gold pool was forced to admit to trading it’s share! I should think that the big investors on comex would have known this was going to happen! No? It could only have been the people who were about to do this buying that would know ahead of time. Yes, only they would know that a “once in a lifetime” buying spree was about to take hold.

Will gold go back down in price? They don’t realy care! Only on kitco can a trader find such good info. I advise every gold trader in the world to access this site every day! There is only one person who knows me at this site. That person is the soul of discretion and integrity. Someday I will contact him again and he will learn my real name. May the force be with you, and keep your eye on london! thank you

Big Trader ( ( the greedy paid ) ) :
They thought noone had enough to stop the game. Soon a brief pause then the game continues. We will be ready.

Date: Fri Feb 28 1997 00:22 [via Notnick]
Big Trader ( the writer ):

last, To all who use me, the 23:10 is not the trader. Will use uplink, not kitco again. Know me now, “I AM THE WESTISLAND”. DONE

Date: Tue Apr 01 1997 14:48 [via Notnick]
Big Trader ( @far east ):

Have taken much gold these days. CB games over now. Mr. Clinton and associates doing same.

Date: Tue Apr 01 1997 15:08 [via Notnick]
GFD ( Big Trader Post Confirmation ):

Eldorado: Agreed. We need to wait for confirmation within 24 hours if it is a BT post – unless something happens in Asia tonight… The post is a bit short and it is hard to say if it is indeed authentic but if it is I would guess a close above 355 tomorrow….

Date: Tue Apr 01 1997 15:32 [via Notnick]
The Writer ( one-westisland@worldnet.att.net ):

GFD: I will keep this address open as long as possible. If you have questions I will answer on Kitco #2 under WESTLAND. It may take time for me to get the answers. All questions must come from you.

Date: Wed Apr 02 1997 11:49 [via Notnick]
The Writer ( thoughts! ):

GFD: I have two email from you, no more. We are at the end of a long travel. The road now forks, what way to go? Many will chuse the bad path and the american family will hurt as the world changes. Another writes, do you think as this?

Understand, that over the past few years physical gold has been locked to the currencies more so than when it was used to back them. Western traders have done just what the money printers wanted, they accepted paper forms as gold. The lure was greed and it worked very well for the printers. The future was always the key “someday the metal would rise and a great payoff would be at hand”. The years have come and gone and no payoff, no 500/600/700/ gold. The truth, there will be no payoff for paper traders. One thing has happened that will “change everything”. The PHYSICAL GOLD MARKET HAS BEEN CORNERED! Any amount of large physical sales that come to market can be taken. To a traders eyes this cannot be, why is the price not going straight up? Why should it, westerners are still trying to rid themselves of metal and hold forward gold ( that is not cornered ) and any other form of leveraged gold. There is no shortage of paper, but there is now a real shortage of gold! Anyone who thinks that the central banks and their billion ozs of gold are a threat to this market have no idea how big real on/off market trading is. So, how do we see when gold will rise in all currencies? A slow fall in the price of paper gold and a opposite spike in real gold price will make westerners leave all paper and try to buy real metal. The rush to make good on forward sales will cause the market to lock, overnight. No bank failures, no depression, no stock market crash, no war, no inflation, just a worldwide shutdown of all “on market gold trading”. That includes all forms. The western traders will still own all of their mining stocks and gold and futures, they just won’t be allowed to use them. But don’t you see, they didn’t want real gold anyway! It was always the others that needed it,,,,,,right?

Date: Wed Apr 02 1997 12:38 [via Notnick]
GFD ( The Writer ):

The last post by “The Writer” ( 11:49 ) is authentic ( as far as my communication with him ). His post is interesting. I have involvement with a small mining play and there has been some discussion by investors whether to keep it private and collect gold dividends or go public and collect paper. Some are very sypathetic with The Writer’s view of the world.

Date: Thu Apr 03 1997 12:50 [via Notnick]
The Writer ( thoughts! ):

GFD: I have two more mail and some answers. We speak more freely now, draw close and think. Who will stand first, who will be last? The writer will say my thoughts.

If a person has more than enough for life others will receive it in time. But time is the enemy of all things created by humans. All who live now will see change, as those before us. In your history one can hear the voices of many others who lost all things as time marched on. If you are of a present day mind your thoughts are only of the here and now. If this be true then draw your sword and make ready to battle. Time and change are about to attack your wealth. There are some who have eyes that see a thousand years past, they know of gold! Know me now, time has tested it, and lost! Gold is not money, not currency, not an investment,it is wealth. The second american family is here, and time and change are ready for battle, are you?

Answers:
You own a house and one day you are given a clear deed and told to move out. Another now lives there for free. The deed may be used as currency if another will accept it. All know you are wealthy, the deed says so! The deed is clear, but is it free? Are you wealthy or is your wealth only in the mind of others? Much of american wealth is truly the thoughts of a nation, drifting on the wind!

Why would rent out a house for less than the going rate? If there are so many for sale just like yours, why not sell and put the money in the bank at a higher return? All know you can buy it back at a much cheaper price! Or is the lease rate low because you know you MAY NOT GET IT BACK AT ALL if you sold? Some realtors only trade cheap property, know also one who has traded with the sun!

When? You ask. Look in a mirror, be that person from the west, he will lead first! And that same person did supply the shortfall for he holds paper as proof!

Date: Thu Apr 03 1997 20:37[via Notnick]
GFD ( More On Thoughts ):

So far I have asked The Writer four questions, three of which he seems to have answered:

1) What did he mean by an earlier quote about our “currency being in jail”. I believe his ( partial ) answer the paragraph about having the deed to a house ( gold ) but not physical posession. However, I feel that this is a superficial interpretation. The real answer is the last ( beautiful ) sentence. Manias are nothing more than than “thoughts blowing in the wind”.

“You own a house and one day you are given a clear deed and told to move out. Another now lives there for free. The deed may be used as currency if another will accept it. All know you are wealthy, the deed says so! The deed is clear, but is it free? Are you wealthy or is your wealth only in the mind of others? Much of american wealth is truly the thoughts of a nation, drifting on the wind!”

The thing that suffers most upon the collapse of a mania is credibility – or credit, financially speaking. Historically, the Bank of England just about folded several times in it’s history and was only saved by boat loads of gold, literally – excluding one that sank!! So if the paper goes poof what is your credit rating. To put it another way – what are you worth?? James Grant’s book about Banking and Bonds is called “Money of the Mind”. So where WILL america’s thoughts drift when a storm comes?

2) Where is the gold coming from to meet physical ( jewelery, etc ) demand? I believe his answer is bullion dealers and banks: “Why would rent out a house for less than the going rate? If there are so many for sale just like yours, why not sell and put the money in the bank at a higher return? All know you can buy it back at a much cheaper price! Or is the lease rate low because you know you MAY NOT GET IT BACK AT ALL if you sold? Some realtors only trade cheap property, know also one who has traded with the sun!”

Intitially, when I read BT’s references to “westerners” foolishly exchanging gold for paper ( forward sales, etc. ) I superficially interpreted this to mean ma and pa dumping their eagles for Microsoft or something. However, Vieserre’s excellent posts over the last day have got me thinking that the real price setting and control of physical gold is the bullion dealers and their associated banks. And what has everyone been doing lately? Gold Loans, forward selling, etc. This implies that the swissies and the brits have ( had ) a lot more of the good stuff than any statistics indicate. These are probably private stocks that were off the books – such as hoards from European nobility, etc….

3) The third question was when would the bubble pop. I believe his answer is in the third paragraph:

“When? You ask. Look in a mirror, be that person from the west, he will lead first! And that same person did supply the shortfall for he holds paper as proof!”

This is a bit more straight forward, particularly if “the west” is really the bullion dealers, CB’s, banks, etc. So what happens if someone’s friendly banker calls a gold loan in this superheated and obviously distorted environment??

Have to get going. Will check in later tonight or tomorrow!!

Date: Sun Apr 06 1997 20:25[via Notnick]
The Writer ( Thoughts! ):

GFD: Yes, you are very close. I receive one mail. CMAX: Yes, you are thinking also. I hear the western countries have 300/400 million people. You know they are real. All other countries have several billion. The Big Trader knows they are real and is close to some of them. He is small and slow, but many hands can hold a large load!

Can you think this can happen? Another hand writes.

Gold is so old. Such a rich history. An educated western mind cannot begin to understand it! We live in a time of closed thought and controlled perception. How could we have known that two thirds of humanity would still think of gold as wealth. It’s not that they are right or wrong to think this way, it’s that we want them to work for us! That is the problem! And when they worked for us we paid them!

And who in the hell would have thought that they would have used so much of that pay to buy gold! Some bought in tiny amounts and some bought in large amounts. This started with the new world trading order that came into being about six years ago. By now that gold is so spread out it would take 20 years and 5 small armies to get it back, I think.

An interesting look, yes. Now the writer gives a view for tomorrow.

A western cowboy phrase, “cut and run” ! You have heard it before? Many had thought that the physical market would always have a great supply. The future selling during the last few months should have pushed the real price thru 300 by now. At that level most of the contracts could have been closed out. Now the buying is done and the vol is drying up! I hear that some do not want to play this game any more. This week I expect to see a cowboy!

Date: Sun Apr 06 1997 21:50 [via Notnick]
GFD ( Another Hand ):

It is interesting to note that BT has a western friend who included some of his own thoughts in the middle paragraph starting with “Gold is so old. Such a rich history. An educated western mind cannot begin to understand it! We live in a time of closed thought and controlled perception.”

In my reading and surfing I have noted that VERY informed persons with apparently close connections with the intelligence community have been concerned about the manipulation and control of the public’s perception of current ( and past ) events. This is true also of sophisticated observers of the spooks. “Another Hand”s comment about “controlled perception” makes me wonder if BT has an advisor with a ( western ) intelligence background.

Hows THAT for reading between the lines! And going waaay out on a limb!! ;- )

Date: Sun Apr 06 1997 21:34 [via Notnick]
GFD ( The Writer ):

I would like to confirm that this is a BT/The Writer post as I only sent one email to him after his last post. I primarily enquired as to whether I was close or not in my ( Thurs Apr 03 20:37 ) interpretation of his last post. It would appear that I was. It would also appear that CMAX is *close* with his Sat 23:11 post.

I also enquired he had also sent a post by “SimpleMan ( faraway ) Thurs Apr 03 16:27″ which implied that we had 6 to 8 weeks to get our affairs in order. I am not sure I have an answer to that but his most recent post just about says the same thing.

The key thing here implied by his posts is that this will be a bullion dealer/banker problem first or that the crises implied by BT will be triggered by the bankers wanting their gold back due to loss of “confidence”. This is the historical mechanism by which mainias collapse and cause economic trauma. Confidence in credit is shattered by some speculative bubble popping and everyone starts calling in loans. As I said in my last BT post, several of these manias just about finished the Bank Of England – the primary CB’s these days.

Some have rightly questioned here why someone like a BT would want to post to us bugs here at kitco – other than a shared philosophy. I have wondered this too. However, if we are talking about a banking problem this may be an excellent forum if you know for a fact that brother Al ( Greeenspan ) is lurking hereabouts ( and even reputed to have made posts here under the handle of “Oracle” ).

If I were Bt I would want to make a killing without killing the system. What is the point otherwise?? He has implied that he has taken his position and is just waiting to cash in. If he is impatient he can try – every so discretely – to rattle the cage a bit. If Al is indeed lurking and sees what BT is getting at he will now realise he may have a “system” problem with respect to the bullion dealers and their associated banks.

In any case the primary body that will be dealing with this is the BIS ( Bank for International Settlements – CB country club ). The BIS is VERY secretive. I would be shocked if there was any news leaked. If there was it would come from Europe, most likely London.

However, when you have a credit crises interest rates spike. Keep an eye on the kitco lease rates page for any twitches. If BT is correct you will see open interest dry up and lease rates spiking to historic highs ( 6% ?? ).

Date: Wed Apr 09 1997 11:11 [via Notnick]
The Writer ( More Thoughts! ):

The Writer ( Thoughts! ) :
GFD: I have other mail.
Anyone not allowed to read this? Stranger talk, Perhaps?

London unspins, but the World does not notice. Tiger wiskers, are ground fine and prepared for the feast. Eat carefully, West.

Questions:
1. Who would be a goldfish?
2. Do the Others know?

Date: Wed Apr 09 1997 11:06 [via Notnick]
The Writer ( Thoughts! ):

GFD: I have one mail.
As a group, paper makers are very strong. But one has “cut and run”! He has come to town and wants to join us! What is this? I see other cowboys “coming down the trail”! For many years they had fun. Now a tiger chases them into town for help.

Can anyone allowed to read this? Strange talk, Yes?

people told them not to take it under 365. Well they did and look at it! Now the fools want to unbolt the tables and chairs and sell them to save their skins. 15 bucks down and how many billions under the table. It’s gona look like a giveaway or a sellout. Heads are going to roll in the alley when london unspins this.

Answers:
1. We should not speak of this.
2. This is only in the minds of traders and thinkers. It has not.

Date: Wed Apr 09 1997 11:43 [via Notnick]
GFD ( Truth and Consequences ):

The post from The Writer at 11:06 is legitimate. The second post at 11:06 is a stinker – along with Ivor Bigbody. It would be nice if Bart would take imposters and make them take a long walk on a short pier…

However I DO find it interesting that the fake BT and Mr Bigbody are saying more about themselves than I suspect they want to – Monty Python indeed! Well it will be interesting to see what movie Mr Python will make out of the mess over in London!! So Ivor, how’s the weather in London these days??

Date: Wed Apr 09 1997 11:59 [via Notnick]
GFD ( Who has questions? I have answers!! ):

I don’t have time to properly comment on the legitimate ( 11:06 ) post from The Writer, however he did give two answers to questions that I did post to him:

1) This was a question about parties that were rumoured to be big players once upon a time. I will respect BT’s privacy here and “not talk of this”.

2) The second question was whether the US was writing calls. “It has not”. When I thought about it I realised they could not because it would be illegal to have the calls excercised…

“people told them not to take it under 365. Well they did and look at it!”

My thoughts exactly! :- )

Date: Wed Apr 09 1997 19:14 [via Notnick]
GFD ( Thoughts ):

For those who are interested here are my comments on BT/The Writer…

Firstly, I made sure that Bart had both our real email addresses so that imposter issues could be adjudicated by him if things got out of hand. Having a password for handles would be the way to go for the longer term.

It appears that The Writer is restricted as to what he can say publicly and so the delphic quality of his posts… What he is saying seems to be relevant to the very private London market and not to the open markets per se. There may be lurkers out there that he is targeting besides the usual suspects on this site.

Most of The Writers posts have preceeded big developments in the markets within 24 hours. As far as I can see, this is not true for his last post ( Sunday 20:25 ). However, what I AM seeing is the markets trading within an EXTREMELY tight range this week, particularly in New York. I wonder if this is deliberate ( but covert ) damage control while some mess is being straightened out in London…

In an earlier post I had said that one of the signs of problems in London would be open interest drying up and lease rates spiking up. Glenn posted today ( 09:45 ) that open interest for the COMEX gold is at the lowest level since 1995 so one possible symptom is in place. The Writer never seems to post unless there is something ( not necessarily obvious ) happening to back up his posts and so this might be it for his last post.

“people told them not to take it under 365. Well they did and look at it! Now the fools want to unbolt the tables and chairs and sell them to save their skins.”

This may imply a selloff of US and European stocks and/or bonds in the next day or so other assets to cover delivery requirements in London.

“15 bucks down and how many billions under the table. It’s gona look like a giveaway or a sellout. Heads are going to roll in the alley when london unspins this”

This whole post seems to be about the problems the bullion dealers and banks are going to face when people discover that their gold was sold for peanuts. However, this may be a little too superficial. BT made a post a day before Bre-X was first halted that had a line about governments confiscating mines. Which could be what happens to Bre-X over the next few months.

So I wonder about “billions under the table. It’s gona look like a giveaway or a sellout”.

Date: Sun Apr 13 1997 21:49 [via Notnick]
The Writer ( Thoughts! ):

GFD: I have four mail, one good, two dum and one different!

Ted B. : “a light vault holds much paper” !

Answers:
1. No settle, it spread far and wide. The price must slowly fall to stop a problem.
2. Table? A Euro size trouble, all will read of it.
3. No. A plain thought from a another.
4. You are seeing it now.

I will rest now

Date: Sun Apr 13 1997 22:55 [via Notnick]
GFD ( Thoughts ):

will provide a decode of the writer’s latest in a couple of hours as I don’t have the time right now. The cryptice answeres are to questions I emailed him.

Date: Mon Apr 14 1997 00:55 [via Notnick]
GFD ( Thoughts ):

I sent four questions to BT/The Writer and a couple of dummy emails ( just to keep imposters hopping! ).

1) I asked him if there would be a cash settlement or would there be something like a short squeeze. His answer: “No settle, it spread far and wide. The price must slowly fall to stop a problem.” This implies that there is not one person or group but rather a large number of parties who want their gold in a sock, but that the paper ( “open” ) markets are being manipulated to “stop a problem” – gold loans and forward selling out of control?? Mooney in his very interesting 23:15 post may be close to the truth.

2) I asked him to elaborate on what he meant by “billions under the table” in his last quote. I wondered if there would be a big scandal coming because dealers have loaned ( effectively sold ) gold that they did not own. His answer: “Table? A Euro size trouble, all will read of it.”

3) I asked him if I was off the mark in stating that “another hand” in his last post had an intelligence backgroud. I was. “No. A plain thought from a another”

4) Later I asked him whether it was possible that some of the selloff in the stock markets was in part attributable to people scrambling to sell other assets to meet their obligations in the gold scene: “You are seeing it now.”

Date: Mon Apr 14 1997 01:08 [via Notnick]
GFD ( Thoughts on Thoughts ):

The Writer responds to my questions as well as well as posting his own thoughts. So if you see a post from him with numbered answers they are in response to my questions. All this is to deal with the impostor situation.

I think that Ted Butler and Mooney are on to something which elaborates what BT/The Writer has been talking about for some time.

The one thing that is a fly in the ointment for me is that he implies that the price of gold is being held down as part of some crises management excercise. Most likely the European gold houses and their CB’s are in the throes of an “unpleasantness” that eventually will be publicised. Loans and forward sales may be constrained and gold will start a very solid bull market.

I suspect that gold may be flat to down for a few more weeks but not months.

TTFN

Date: Mon Jun 02 1997 18:59
SimpleMan (faraway.com):

Gold will reach $872.00 BY first week of July, 1998. Remmember this.

Date: Mon Jun 02 1997 21:24
GFD (Simplicity):

BT fans should note the comments made by “SimpleMan ( faraway.com ) ” at 18:59. He is somehow linked with BT making a few comments in the past. His most recent one on Thurs 20:58 preceeded a major spike on the comex the next day.

Date: Wed Jun 04 1997 16:21
GFD (Thoughts):

In the spirit of Tort, I have decided to contribute something to cheer things up – for our very dear friends the shorts!

BT’s comment about the South Africans made me wonder about something. Nelson Mandela has made a point of continuing ties with countries and organizations that supported the ANC during their time in exile. Just suppose a few chinese central bankers dropped by one day to very helpfully point out that Nelson could do himself and his loyal friends a big favour by saving the poor gold shorts from their compulsive, self destructive behavior. Particularly in light of new China Russia friendliness. ( Surely not extending to palladium markets!! :-o )

I don’t have any information to confirm this kindly thought but it does warm my heart and so I thought I would pass it on! :- )

Date: Wed Jun 04 1997 16:35
GFD (Bouncy Thoughts):

George S. Cole: Given BT’s timing ( posting just before big spikes ) it will be particularly interesting to watch gold market behavior over the next couple of days. The last spike ( after a post by SimpleMan ) fizzled out quickly. I suspect that there will now be a move of sufficient magnitude to test the intestinal fortitude of the shorts to the utmost. I am thinking it is positioned to take advantage of your observation that gold is due for a rally having gone 4-5 consecutive down days.

How well it holds up will give a good indication of where the hedge funds are at, assuming BT is correct in his implication that CB’s are now standing down. This could be the “crossroads” that BT may be finding himself at. “Interesting times” indeed!

Date: Wed Jun 04 1997 15:23
BIG TRADER (THOUGHTS!):

They will not sell platinum and they will not sell palladium and now they will not sell gold! That is why the “writer” ( along with more than a few others ) has gone to Europe.

For many months open metal was purchased only as it set free by falling prices. But the paper contracts are never made good . People were asked to “stand down” as the market came to them. It no longer happens now as your own banks have said no more. The future will now be as the past! When is a “fact” accepted as real? Only when it comes from a factual source? Or when it is experienced as a real life event! For a time in past “all new supply was spoken for”, now it is “spoken for times two”.

Germany will not back the writers again. They will revalue and hold at all costs! The Swiss will sell a very small amount in the future at a much different price.

The Dutch will “swap” no more. These cowboys have cut and run. South Africa now will compete with “the Trader” as a buyer! London has told them!

Then I should think we are done, as people will “stand down” NO LONGER”.

The Trader is at his cross road, one path and more time will pass. The other path and the gold market, “as all now know it” will exist no more.

Uplink off, find me here.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 17:23
BIG TRADER (THOUGHTS!):

Hong Kong is as a great flowing river that has reached the ocean of her birth. They fear her no more. But a great “Noble House” has come out of these waters and it will not fail. Bring London’s problems to us, one by one and they shall be dealt with. If they have no fear then let them look behind as South Africa has drawn her sword. Many will soon loose their heads in a mad rush to find “real gold”!

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 19:28
GFD (The 8th Thread):

Earl: Suppose that “7 Threads” is basically sound ( although I too squirm a bit ). How do you suppose the Chinese would react to it?

The “reunification” of Hong Kong does have considerable patriotic meaning to China as it redresses an ancient humiliation. What is not so widely known is the fact that China was also forced to accept foreign currency rather than gold for it’s exports at that time – another humiliation.

Now suppose we have the one world currency shaping up and whatever else the Chinese may think of it they know that it will not be a Chinese currency. They will most likely look at this as an attempt to pre-empt or mitigate the emergence of a dominant Chinese economy in the 21st century by western interests.

One response would be to ignore or “opt out” of the “plans” afoot. But a more “satisfying” approach perhaps would be to hijaack those plans. Suppose that what triggers the hypothetical financial apocolapse required for a one world currency is an explosion in the price of gold. And suppose the one world currency is a gold backed Yuan.

This is one scenario that would explain exactly what “Big Trader” may “really” be up to with his allegedly massive accumuation of physical gold.

Date: Thu Jun 05 1997 22:57
SimpleMan (faraway.com):

The slaughter of fools has begun!

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 21:07
BIG TRADER (Thoughts):

Is this news? Can this be true? “ “ Now that the “discount bid at spot” is running 3 or 4 to one you can be real sure retail isn’t going to reach for it! They would start a free for all! But they have to bid, it isn’t going to come from the sky. No wonder the big holders are “standing down”! How are they going to handle the paper that the Asians are trying to sell? That’s a good one, because they hold physical to paper at 20 to 1 and spot will go thru the roof if they dump it! Well, with a roll-over of most existing deals being the only option, a good deal of “old forward gold paper” will be put on the street at whatever price. Nobody is going to pay par for this stuff when it was written at a premium to spot during a much higher price. And now that new supply can’t be pulled from retail to cover the paper the writers are the only bidders for their own stuff. But if any of it trades at a big discount, it’s going to hammer what‘s left to the point that the banks will call the loans! If one big boy grabs the physical during the next month or so it’ll take the whole thing down.“ “

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 22:53
BIG TRADER (thoughts):

This could not be true? More? So many off market forward gold deals were done without any gold changing hands! Big buyers got on the paper side of these things and thought that the CB’s were backing the dealer banks by written contract. If the mines couldn’t perform the banks would …….! But what if in some deals the mines were not involved at all ? Just off market option trades as backing? And some of the paper buyers shorted the futures in a big way to cover. And now whatever gold that was to back these deals is found to be “not there”? And everybody was looking at all this paper being sold and thought there must be one hell of a lot of gold being sold! Now during the last six months the price has fallen, but I have to ask, “who has got who”?

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:06
GFD (Who Indeed):

Big Trader: Who got who? It may be “retail” ( jewelers, etc ) anxiously contemplating their efficient “just in time” inventory systems that may just have ran out of time. I agree with Ted Butler that all this paper has sent markets the wrong ( but convieniently politically correct ) signals leading some down the garden path.

As for the deals that you are talking about I suspect that they will be quietly wound down – with the “helpful” assistance of the central banks. That is, the deals will be essentialy “canceled out”.

The real question is what will be seen in the market once this obscuring cloud of paper dissappears??

Yellow palladium anyone??

Date: Sun Jun 08 1997 23:32
BIG TRADER (thoughts):

GFD & Steve: Good write.

When we “wound down” and “cancel out” smallest part of this paper market it take out comex and otc paper completely! Then you must settle several hundred million ozs with london. The ability of the entire worldwide gold mining and trading community to sell a product will be destroyed in short time. The metal market as we know it from 1968 will end!

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 00:35
BIG TRADER (@Delivery Day):

Watch London. Uplink terminated.

Date: Wed Jun 11 1997 11:36
SimpleMan (faraway.com):

Big Trader is right again. Chaos in London on delivery day!

Date: Fri Jun 13 1997 00:19
Big Big Trader (Big@trader.com):

Many of the June XAU Call writers are going to get blown out next week. This will start with a big gap up in the XAU tomorrow. Gold stocks wont be cheap much longer.

Date: Sat Jun 14 1997 22:39
BIG TRADER (THOUGHTS?):

Can the Trader know? Can people wait?

Are the CBs serious about selling all of the gold ? You bet they are! Except for Germany and the Dutch. You see, some did not accept that the physical market is “cornered”. Many only read official statistics but others have eyes and ears that receive thru walls! All new supply is covered times 4 . And it is the small existing stocks held by a few , who have written contracts , that are a “problem”! If the governments sell many will wait to be filled. If they do not the trouble in London will expand to the currencies! Time has been purchased.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:30
BIG TRADER (LAST THOUGHTS!):

People say gold not rise in us$, big trader say it rise “now”! Keep best eye on hk at london open, all week. Comex to late. Offer to sell is no take, time gone. No more talk, no more thoughts for West! “Stand down” for 4th time, no. It time now, Trader make “times interesting” for gold. Now we see what real. Now we see who real.

Date: Sun Jun 15 1997 19:57
SimpleMan (faraway):

George S. Cole You think that BT may be for real. But you are not sure. Others have ignored his comments. Two months ago I posted a warning to all who trust in paper, all paper. Last week I warned all about the slaughter of fools. There was a real concern and fear in London. US media reports nothing. London kept the lid tight. Next two weeks will show all that BT is for real. Re: future price fo gold, the increase and the speed of increase will shock 99.999% of investors and 98% of gold bulls. Summer 1997 will go down in history as the begining of geopolitical changes.

Date: Mon Jun 16 1997 10:27
Big Trader (closer.than@youthink):

WARNING!!!! Beware, Gold like dagger now!

Date: Fri Jun 20 1997 02:48
BIG TRADER (Thoughts):

Get ready. I know you have doubting me. In SIX days you will know if I speak true.

Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 09:10
SimpleMan (faraway):

Worry not about the price of gold. I have learned from a well conected source that western CBs and govs are scared! All the press releases, studies and posturing are not for us small gold traders, but for China!

For the last 12 months China has been buying up gold and demanding delivery. Western govs don’t care about you and I they can manipulate us. But not China. Time is VERY short indeed. Gold is about to hit the moon.

Date: Mon Jun 23 1997 16:19
SimpleMan (faraway):

Hashimoto’s statement is an indication of a riff between US and Japan. He realizes what is about to happen to global financial system.

All for themselves in times of crisis.

For him to make that statement in public is of HUGE significance! Prior to today all CBs and govs presented a united front when it came to gold. NO MORE. All countries will try to save themselves.

PUETZ is right. Today was a day of great importance.

Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 07:33
SimpleMan (faraway):

Is gold just another investment vehicle or is it a store of value?

Just another investment you say, then run like a rabbit. Store of value you say, then you have another great buying ( accumulating ) opportunity. Gold is cheap by any measure. Get it now and you will own the worldwithin 2 years.

Date: Fri Jun 27 1997 13:56
GFD (Thoughts on BT):

“Heard on Kitco Street” was great!! Definitely a Kitco classic.

Something I have been meaning to write for the last few days is how exactly a BT “apocolapse” would actually play out. If the recent BT posts are to be believed ( and the torrent of negative news about gold after his last posts kind of lend credence that it is the same BT as in the past ) then today he is dressed in his sunday finest standing at the wicket and asking politely for his gold.

I suspect the real question will be what happens after his polite request. First they will tell him to hold off for another month. He said he will decline to hold off – no more mr. nice guy. Then what happens?? I suspect this type of situation has never happened before and no one really knows…

Best guess would be that the market will declare force majeur ( “Yeah we sold you gold that we don’t own and now we can’t deliver” ). What happens after that will be very interesting… Does BT get his money back? Who will have to refund it?

And most importantly: What will they have to SELL in order to give BT his money back.

As far as gold goes, I really do not have a clue how this will play out. It may just mean that the open interest collapses and there are now fewer buyers out there for paper plays – which could be price neutral.

I don’t know what else BT could do to force the situation short of sending the Chinese navy ( such as it is ) down the Thames….

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 11:29
BIG TRADER (last warning):

russia is the key japan is a sideshow the bull is charging in the form of a bear ..uplink severed..

Date: Tue Jul 22 1997 15:45
GFD (24 Hr Warning):

Someone alleging to be Big Trader made a post ( 11:29 ) and it sort of sounds like him. If it IS the BT of legend there is a high probability of a price spike within the next 24 hrs.

The alleged post is as follows: “russia is the key japan is a sideshow the bull is charging in the form of a bear ..uplink severed..”

Just out of curiosity does anyone have an even vague idea why russia should be a strong force in gold – or anything else for that matter ( except, of course, bankruptcy ) .

It is very hard to say if any of the BT posts over the last few months are actually from the BT of the beginning of the year. It will be interesting to see what happens.

Date: Sat Aug 23 1997 18:09
ANOTHER (thoughts not written anymore):

Hello to all!

I had the opportunity to read a private reports/discussion over the last week and thought this one would have some meaning to this group. The thoughts come from a different culture and land mass so they required conversion to Western style communication. Here is from one you don’t get here anymore.

Why do they view their debt in terms of yield when it only returnees more of the same paper? The only way to convert the return on this American debt is by buying something real with it. Only then do we have a “yield”. So let us continue to view it as always before, using it’s pricing gage to determine value, the US dollar. The marketplace is never wrong to give a high price to a low value debt as long as it uses an “unreal “ currency as a value gage. The Westerners use “paper to price paper” and “more paper to price more paper” in an endless quest to add value where value only exists in the minds of men. To this end they say we have lost holding gold, but our families and children cannot go broke? No one owes us and we owe no one, and we do not “convert paper to something real” to create “yield”. We already own our “yield”, no conversion needed! Now they have created the illusion of gold in great supply to lower it’s value in currency terms, and the Americans accept this. They do not question that this illusion was done using paper contracts ,that do not hold gold but are priced in currencies that offer a yield valued only in human emotion terms. It is in this fashion that the greatest folly of Western thinking will bring an end to an era of unvalued money. It will come about as the entire world evolves into those that have military might using paper currency maneuver little people countries with gold. But all gold is owned by someone, somewhere and is not free for the taking. In the near future a real value will be exchanged for gold and those that hold paper gold will bid much higher to obtain what they thought they already had!

Remember now, “a broke superpower ever destroys a simple country that has gold, they will do business with them ”! Big Trader

Now that most have converted paper gold contracts to real gold we have but to view the “great scramble” from far away. To the advantage of many, the Americans continue to position themselves in opposite fashion from the third world. They sell all real gold to hold gold contracts and gold stocks.

At some point all of the gold will be off the market. Then the CBs will be forced to become the full primary suppliers. This continued drift to CB sales will no doubt destroy most bullish gold traders until London is forced to sell real gold. Then the true volume will drive the price of gold in all currencies to such heights that it will force a reevaluation of “what was primary supply” in the first place. During this “lock up” time all Asians will be happy with the conversion price during the summer of the last few years.

Know this to be true, the millions of ounces out on hidden contracts will not be made up for by the CBs once the problem begins. During this time the new “currency price” of the entire gold stock will equal all the paper money in existence and the CBs will suddenly claim they have very little gold in an effort to hide all they can. Big Trader

This rewrite is very close. It comes from the real one, not the fakes. good luck!

Date: Sun Aug 24 1997 20:40
ANOTHER (REPLY TO ELDORADO.):

ELDORADO: These communiqué were done at different times appxomentally two weeks ago. I received them via an indirect/secure source. I can tell by this system that others have tried to interpret and post some of this gentleman’s thoughts. The content is thought provoking to myself and I hope to others. Here is a repost of the earlier work and appx. dates.

Hello to all!

I had the opportunity to read a private reports/discussion over the last week and thought this one would have some meaning to this group. The thoughts come from a different culture and land mass so they required conversion to Western style communication. Here is from one you don’t get here anymore.

Aug 01
Why do they view their debt in terms of yield when it only returnees more of the same paper? The only way to convert the return on this American debt is by buying something real with it. Only then do we have a “yield”. So let us continue to view it as always before, using it’s pricing gage to determine value, the US dollar.

The marketplace is never wrong to give a high price to a low value debt as long as it uses an “unreal “ currency as a value gage. The Westerners use “paper to price paper” and “more paper to price more paper” in an endless quest to add value where value only exists in the minds of men. To this end they say we have lost holding gold, but our families and children cannot go broke? No one owes us and we owe no one, and we do not “convert paper to something real” to create “yield”. We already own our “yield”, no conversion needed!

Now they have created the illusion of gold in great supply to lower it’s value in currency terms, and the Americans accept this. They do not question that this illusion was done using paper contracts ,that do not hold gold but are priced in currencies that offer a yield valued only in human emotion terms. It is in this fashion that the greatest folly of Western thinking will bring an end to an era of unvalued money. It will come about as the entire world evolves into those that have military might using paper currency maneuver little people countries with gold. But all gold is owned by someone, somewhere and is not free for the taking. In the near future a real value will be exchanged for gold and those that hold paper gold will bid much higher to obtain what they thought they already had!

Remember now, “a broke superpower ever destroys a simple country that has gold, they will do business with them ”! Big Trader

Aug 04
Now that most have converted paper gold contracts to real gold we have but to view the “great scramble” from far away. To the advantage of many, the Americans continue to position themselves in opposite fashion from the third world. They sell all real gold to hold gold contracts and gold stocks.

At some point all of the gold will be off the market. Then the CBs will be forced to become the full primary suppliers. This continued drift to CB sales will no doubt destroy most bullish gold traders until London is forced to sell real gold. Then the true volume will drive the price of gold in all currencies to such heights that it will force a reevaluation of “what was primary supply” in the first place. During this “lock up” time all Asians will be happy with the conversion price during the summer of the last few years.

Know this to be true, the millions of ounces out on hidden contracts will not be made up for by the CBs once the problem begins. During this time the new “currency price” of the entire gold stock will equal all the paper money in existence and the CBs will suddenly claim they have very little gold in an effort to hide all they can. Big Trader

This rewrite is very close. It comes from the real one, not the fakes. good luck!

Date: Mon Aug 25 1997 13:55
GFD (Thoughts On A Short BT):

George S. Cole, GVC, Bob: Is BT a short? Even a short short?? :- ) Certainly the last BT posts from around the time that Hongkong reverted back to China were definitely from some short. Was that person the same as the “original” BT?

In some of my earliest posts I had speculated that it would be in a BT’s interest to short COMEX while going long OTC or London. In my books it goes without saying that the interests of a large accumulator are not necessarily aligned with the traders. However, I can’t see the kitcoites being worth his time to spoof.

The last purported BT post from ‘Another’ have raised some interesting questions. Firstly, if prices keep trending downward and mines keep closing the CB’s will certainly become the primary supplier of the markets. Will the CB’s conciously adopt that position? In the cold light of morning I agree with Bob that the gold mining industry probably does not figure that much in the political equations of the CB’s – other than contributing to deflationary action they really cannot afford.

The other question is whether BT and other *large* asian money have now ceased buying and are now sitting in the hills with their gold watching the fun – martinis in hand. This might actually mean less shorting action. The shorts need willing buyers in places like the OTC markets.

Maybe that is how his operation worked. The shorts would sell to him, driving down the price while he accumulated the physical position that he desired. Maybe the markets will change trend if he has ceased to buy from the OTC shorts…

Date: Sun Sep 14 1997 21:12
ANOTHER (an answer?):

This could be an answer directed to the “Red Baron”?

The CBs are becoming “primary suppliers” to the gold market. Understand that they are not doing this because they want to, they have to. The words are spoken to show a need to raise capital but we knew that was a screen from long ago. You will find the answer to the LBMA problem if you follow a route that connects South Africa, The middle east, India and then into Asia! Remember this; the western world uses paper as a real value, but oil and gold will never flow in the same direction. Big Trader

The following message by ANOTHER is the first message included in the Thoughts!. I have not yet systematically searched for messages in the partial copy of the Kitco archive that might have been omitted from the Thoughts!.

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9 Responses to Before the Thoughts! and Before the Trail

  1. mortymer says:

    OK, this is what you had in mind, great! Saved me a lot of precious time… :o)
    Also thanks to Jeff and Wendy for their part on this collection!

  2. Jeff says:

    Good work, Victor. What do you think was the main problem which had Another so excited in summer 97? The Bundesbank revaluation fight? The Japanese? Or BT buying all paper and refusing to ‘stand down’?

  3. Aaron says:

    Great read, Victor. For whatever reason SimpleMan’s gold projections caught my eye and I found myself looking for supporting evidence in Kitco’s archive of gold price movements. I couldn’t find a single call that panned out in mid-late 97.

    That observation in and of itself isn’t very interesting — at least to me — until it’s considered in this context:

    Date: Mon Jun 02 1997 21:24
    GFD (Simplicity):

    BT fans should note the comments made by “SimpleMan ( faraway.com ) ” at 18:59. He is somehow linked with BT making a few comments in the past. His most recent one on Thurs 20:58 preceeded a major spike on the comex the next day.

    And a later comment from SimpleMan:

    “Get it now and you will own the worldwithin 2 years.”

    Pretty bold statements if you ask me.

    I wonder how SimpleMan and Another knew each other if they did indeed communicate privately? That is assuming of course we are reading Another’s Thoughts — which is difficult to determine conclusively without the ID stamps.

    –Aaron

  4. Jeff says:

    Date: Sun Nov 02 1997 11:51
    Shek ( home ) ID#287279:
    ANOTHER,
    Some months ago another poster ( Simple Man ) gave the same advice. Get rid of all paper assets, only physical possession will do. Gold stock certificates will be useless. Are you Simple Man or connected to him?

    Shek,
    I do not know him, but have seen the posts.

  5. Aaron says:

    |> I do not know him, but have seen the posts

    excellent catch Jeff. Thank you!

  6. Pingback: Central Bank Gold Leasing « Victor The Cleaner

  7. ein_anderer says:

    Dear VtC,

    thanks for this link. I have read it all. But as I told on FOFOA’s blog: Some things there and almost everything here do sound very mysterious for me. It seems as if a meaning “between the ((English )) lines” is much more difficult to understand than any “normal” line–if you are not native speaking English. And these lines here seem to contain a lot of things “between”! But I have learnt at least this: ANOTHER and Big Trader seem to be real insiders although their predictions did not yet came true. Or did they?

    • If you consider only the timing predictions in a narrow sense, then, yes, the timing didn’t work out as announced. There is way more in these postings, however. For example, a way of thinking about international trade, about macroeconomics, and about monetary policy that you don’t find very often these days – definitely not in university level Econ courses nor anywhere in the mainstream financial sector analysis nor in the media. This way of thinking has been able to explain a lot of what we have observed since 1999.

      Finally, there are a number of detailed predictions that did come true, among them the rising dollar oil price.

      Victor

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